Sandew Hira
The Hague, August 29, 2025
Introduction
The US has sent seven warships off the coast of Venezuela. Trump is preparing his people for a US invasion of Venezuela. On August 7, the US Departments of State and Justice doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, after accusing him of being “one of the largest drug traffickers in the world.” US officials accused Maduro and his Minister of the Interior, Justice and Peace, Diosdado Cabello, of collaborating with the Cartel de los Soles, a drug cartel designated a “terrorist” organization by Washington. Cabello, like Maduro, is a member of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, asked on August 21st about the possibility of US troops on the ground in Venezuela, said : “President Trump is prepared to use all the American resources to prevent drugs from flowing into (the US). The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco-terrorist cartel.” She added: “Many Caribbean countries and many countries in the region have applauded the administration’s counter-narcotics operations and efforts.”
The climate is being created for an American invasion of Venezuela. How realistic is this?
American invasions
An American invasion of Venezuela would not be the first in Latin America and the Caribbean. In 1961, an invasion was carried out at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba by Cuban exiles trained and financed by the CIA. The invasion failed.
In 1965, the US military invaded the Dominican Republic with 23,000 troops to crush a leftist victory in the 1962 elections led by Juan Bosch.
In 1982, the US army invaded the island of Grenada with 8,000 troops after the assassination of Maurice Bishop, which followed a split in the ruling New Jewel Movement.
The military invasion is the last resort to overthrow left-wing governments. All other means (military coups, economic boycotts, destabilization through media propaganda) have been used countless times in recent decades.
The Campaign to Defeat the Bolivarian Revolution
In Venezuela, America has tried everything. In 1998, Hugo Chávez won the Venezuelan presidential election for the first time. The opposition refused to recognize the result and used its media and supporters to destabilize the country. On April 11, 2002, hundreds of thousands of opponents marched on the presidential palace in Miraflores. The opposition called for a general strike to demand Chávez’s resignation. They deployed violent mobs to provoke an uprising. A group of high-ranking military officers, led by General Lucas Rincón, staged a coup. They arrested Chávez and took him to a military base. General Rincón announced on television that Chávez had resigned. The leader of the employers’ association, Pedro Carmona, declared himself interim president. Carmona’s first actions were to dissolve parliament (the National Assembly), the Supreme Court, and the constitution. Thousands of Chavistas spontaneously flocked to Miraflores Palace to demand Chávez’s return. Within the military, there was widespread anger over the dissolution of the constitution and institutions. Paratrooper units led by General Raúl Baduel and other loyalist units seized the presidential palace and refused to recognize the new government. Without broad support, Carmona fled after less than 48 hours in power. In the early morning of April 14, Chávez, who had been held at a naval base, was freed by loyalist troops and flown back to Miraflores to be greeted by an overwhelming crowd.
From December 2002 to February 2003, the opposition (including oil industry executives and unions) organized a general strike aimed at ousting Chávez by paralyzing the economy, especially crucial oil exports. Violent protests by the opposition followed. Oil production plummeted, costing the economy billions of dollars. Ultimately, the strike failed, further strengthening Chávez’s position.
The new constitution introduced by Chavez in 1999 included a new democratic element: the recall referendum. A recall referendum is a form of direct democracy in which voters can remove an elected official (such as a president, governor, or mayor) from office before the end of their term. It serves as a tool for ensuring accountability. The initiators must collect signatures from 20% of the electorate. The National Electoral Council (CNE) must validate the signatures.
In 2004, the opposition succeeded in collecting signatures for a recall referendum for the presidency. The CNE called the referendum for August 15, 2004. Turnout was 70%. Those in favor of Chavez’s impeachment won 41% of the vote, and those opposed to impeachment won 59%. Chavez remained in office.
Venezuela holds elections for the president, parliament, 23 states (Venezuela is a federal state), and 335 municipalities. The opposition has won zero presidential elections, one parliamentary election (in 2015), three to five states in various elections, and one-third of the municipal councils. The opposition boycotted some of these elections, but in those it did participate, it won a minority of seats in the states and municipal councils.
The 2015 parliamentary elections marked a turning point in the political balance of power. The opposition won 109 of the 167 seats. In 2018, Maduro won the presidential election, but parliament, chaired by Juan Guaidó, refused to recognize the result. Guaidó declared himself president and his work was recognized as such by the United States and the European Union. The remaining institutions in Venezuela (army, judiciary) did not recognize Guaidó, and he quickly lost the initiative. He fled to Miami in 2023.
A key tool for overthrowing the Bolivarian Revolution is the economic boycott. In 2019, the United States imposed an embargo on Venezuelan oil exports. Anyone who bought that oil could expect US sanctions. Buyers could not obtain insurance for tankers. The oil company’s US assets and assets were frozen. Its US subsidiary, which owns refineries and pipelines in the US, was placed under the control of Guaidó and his cronies, who subsequently stole hundreds of millions from this wealthy company.
It wasn’t just about oil. Countries and companies were forced by the US to stop doing business with Venezuela. The economic blowback was enormous. I was in Venezuela in 2019 and saw how empty the shops were. Inflation was enormous. Between 2014 and 2021, the economy shrank by an estimated 80%.
I’ve been to Venezuela four times since 2019. The last time was in January 2025 for Maduro’s inauguration. I saw how the Maduro government had managed to turn the economic tide. Last time, the shops were full. I saw new malls. The restaurants were bustling. There was a lot of economic activity on the streets. According to the IMF, the economy grew by 13% in 2022, 9% in 2023, and 8% in 2024. How did that happen?
Venezuela has succeeded in finding new oil markets in Asia (China, Malaysia), Turkey, and other parts of the world. Venezuela has created space for private initiative, and many entrepreneurs are eagerly taking advantage of this. Uber has disappeared from Venezuela, but young Venezuelan entrepreneurs have developed their own Uber service, not only for cars but also for mopeds.
The economic boycott is still palpable. There are no direct flights from Europe to Venezuela. Turkey is the only country operating such flights. But the massive malaise of 2019 has disappeared.
Now there’s only one option left to crush the revolution: a military invasion. But that won’t be easy. The Venezuelan army is prepared. The population has been called upon to enlist in the popular militias. Throughout the country, 15,000 volunteer registration centers have been set up for the popular militia, and hundreds of thousands have already signed up.
The question is whether the Americans dare to actually carry out an invasion. With the current Trump administration, anything is possible, including this foolish act, which will do more damage to America than Venezuela.